Scientists of BSMU and USATU are developing a mathematical model for predicting the coronavirus infection development

On March 31, the Institute of public health and health organization of BSMU hosted the meeting of representatives of Bashkir State Medical University and Ufa State Aviation Technical University.  Valentin Pavlov, BSMU rector, corresponding member of RAS, and Sergey Novikov, USATU rector, signed the agreement to create the project office for mathematical modeling and forecasting the development of a new coronavirus infection.

The group of scientists from BSMU and USATU are developing models that allow scenario forecasting of the spread of infection. Scientists test basic and scenario models based on real data and develop software that allows to build scenario dynamic forecasts based on input data on the dynamics of the coronavirus infection spread in the region.

- The start of the development of a new coronavirus infection in our country and the Republic is unique, it differs from the so-called Chinese and Italian scenarios. Most of the patients were infected abroad and these are middle-aged people, 40-50 years old. The measures taken by the leadership of the country and the Republic allow us to stretch the peak of the epidemic and prevent the mass admission of patients to hospitals. Relying on the open data and accumulated experience of scientific research, our colleagues from Ufa State Aviation Technical University are developing the model for predicting the development of infection. That will allow the healthcare system to most efficiently provide all measures for the prevention, diagnosis and elimination of a new coronavirus infection, - commented Valentin Pavlov, BSMU rector, corresponding member of RAS.

 
https://utv.ru/material/matematika-protiv-koronavirusa-bashkirskie-uchyonye-delayut-svoi-prognozy/