Ufa scientists predict the COVID-19 disease rate in Russia in a few days

The number of patients with coronavirus infection in Moscow by April 14 will reach 10 thousand, and in the regions of Russia, excluding Moscow, Moscow region and St. Petersburg the number will be 5 thousand. This conclusion was made by scientists of the project office for mathematical modeling and forecasting of the new coronavirus infection development organized jointly by Bashkir State Medical University and Ufa State Aviation Technical University.

Scientists build predictive models with a planning horizon of 7 days based on Rospotrebnadzor data, their accuracy is 98%. A similar model for Bashkortostan will appear in the near future, it requires a little more data dynamics.

Earlier, Bashinform reported that scientists from BSMU and USATU are developing a mathematical model for predicting the development of coronavirus infection. On the part of Ufa State Aviation Technical University, the group includes Irina Lakman, candidate of Technical Sciences, and Airat Galyamov, candidate of Technical Sciences, on the part of Bashkir State Medical University — Naufal Zagidullin, MD,  Azat Bilyalov, candidate of Medical Sciences, Bulat Idrisov, and Diana Gareeva. Relying on the models, the authorities and healthcare system are expected to function more quickly and effectively.

 
Source: Bashinform http://www.bashinform.ru/news/1437634-uchenye-iz-ufy-sprognozirovali-zabolevaemost-covid-19-v-rossii-cherez-neskolko-dney/?clear_cache=Y